TOKYO, Japan -- Kochi Toshihide
<silence> Thank you so much for doing this. Uh, I'm coach from K News, and, uh, I appreciate this opportunity. Uh, I think, uh, I don't think we have much time, so I want to start, uh, interview right away. My, my first question is about, uh, China and Taiwan. Uh, it's being said that the people's Republic of China possibly invade Taiwan. Uh, do you think China will decide to, uh, invade Taiwan in the near future? And if so, uh, how will the Marine Corps respond to the situation when the Taiwan contingency happens? Yeah.
Gen. Smith
Kochi Toshihide, first, thanks for allowing me to do this interview and for, uh, taking a couple minutes as I come, come back to Japan. Uh, I was here as the commander of three MEF, uh, for a year, and then my son and his wife were stationed here for three years. So, uh, it feels good to be back to my second home. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, it feels very good to be back. The Marine Corps's job here in the Indo-Pacific is to deter, um, our job is to work in this instance with this particular alliance, this exceptional alliance is to ensure that we deter conflict. So I would never presume a conflict to happen. Our job is to prevent a conflict from happening, especially at any conflict that could, uh, spill over to Japan, because we have a mutual defense treaty with Japan, which we take very seriously.
Kochi Toshihide
Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. So, uh, do, do you think, uh, the China will decide to, uh, invade Taiwan in the near future? I,
Gen Smith:
I'll repeat what I have heard. Um, from our very senior, uh, leaders within the Department of Defense and the nation, no conflict is inevitable. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> none, no conflict anywhere in the world is inevitable. Our job is to make sure that conflict does not arise. And that is why we work so hard as a Marine Corps and with the Japanese self-defense force to be a deterrent force for any conflict with any nation. 'cause we all seek and yearn for a free and open and peaceful Indo-Pacific and a free and open globe that is peaceful mm-hmm. <affirmative>, but no conflict is inevitable.
Kochi Toshihide :
Inevitable. Okay. Right. So, the Marine Corps are reportedly, well training Taiwanese troops in Taiwan. Could you give us some details about when and what kind of training, uh, is being conducted by Marines to Taiwanese troops?
Gen. Smith:
What I'll say is that the Taiwan Relations Act mm-hmm. <affirmative>, which governs our, our conduct, allows for equipping the transfer of equipment and for other services that would help, um, to prevent any kind of reunification by force. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, and I'll simply leave it at that <laugh>.
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, so will the US military increase the IT training or other involvement with Taiwan forces in the future?
Gen Smith:
Yeah, I'll, I'll go back, uh, kusan to the, the Taiwan Relations Act. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, which does govern everything that we do. And, and that relations act, again, it, it, it provides for the transfer of, uh, military equipment mm-hmm. <affirmative>, and also those other services that would help to prevent any kind of reunification by force. Okay.
Kochi Toshihide:
Uh, the US has called for lines of communication between the US military and Chinese military. Uh, so have you, have you met with your counterpart, uh, Chinese military counterparts? Yeah,
Gen. Smith:
I have personally not mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I've been, uh, the acting commandant for two months mm-hmm. <affirmative>, but I can tell you that the United States has stated repeatedly that we are always open to dialogue. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> more dialogue is always better to prevent strategic miscalculation or miscommunication. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> and the United States has always been open to dialogue.
Kochi Toshihide:
Okay. What, what do you think, uh, about the importance of the dialogue between US and China <inaudible>?
Gen. Smith:
Yeah. I, I think as, as a, as a member of the Joint Chiefs of staff, I think more communication is always better, because, again, what you seek to do is prevent miscalculation mm-hmm. <affirmative>, and we've been open to that repeatedly. Uh, our senior leaders have noted that repeatedly in, in the recent past, that preventing strategic miscalculation due to a piece of false or inaccurate information is always helpful. 'cause again, the goal is to prevent conflict so that all of us live in a free, open and peaceful Indo-Pacific.
Kochi Toshihide:
Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Uh, okay. My next question is about the Chinese, uh, missile technology. China is advancing its, uh, missile development and improving its technology. Uh, when the speaker of the house p visited Taiwan last year, China increased its provocation, including landing a missile in Japan's exclusive economic zone. How do you assess the Chinese, uh, missile threat?
Gen. Smith:
The missile threat from the P R C mm-hmm.
Is significant and growing, and to your point, firing a missile into another country's economic exclusion zone. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> is an example of that growing and real threat that everyone should take seriously. No country wishes to have another country fire a missile. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> over it or into its economic exclusion zone, no country,
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, about the Okinawa. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, you are the, uh, how do you say, coordinator of the four military forces in Okinawa,.S o that's new
Kochi Toshihide :
<laugh> and Okinawa Prefecture lost its case in the Supreme Court over the US Air Station, FEMA relocation to the Heco. Uh, this month, Japanese government is expected to proceed, uh, with the Heco landfill construction, but they're still strong opposition from the Okinawas. What do you think, uh, should be done to gain Okinawa's understanding, and what is your reaction to the, uh, ruling of the Supreme Court?
Gen. Smith:
Well, with regard to the ruling, I would say I have tremendous faith in the Japanese legal system, and, and I will simply allow the Japanese legal system to, to proceed. Uh, but again, I have tremendous faith in it. I would say that my time on Okinawa, my, my year as the commander there, uh, and my son's three years, uh, there just recently was the best duty station I have ever had. Um, my wife and I loved being residents of Okinawa. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, and we would often say we are not citizens of Japan or of the prefecture of Okinawa, but we were residents. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> and our experiences were all exceptional. And I think that our continued interaction with the local community in any prefecture where there are marines, is vital to understanding people to people, because that is the most important thing, not about any technology or piece of equipment, but just the people to people connection. And my experience in Okinawa was that it was always exceptionally good. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I was extremely well treated in, in Okinawa mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Um, and I just felt extremely fortunate to be there. Mm-hmm.
Kochi Toshihide:
<affirmative>. Uh, do you think the construction in Heno CO should be proceeded by the Japanese government? I mean, even though there's a opposition from Okinawa people Yeah.
Gen. Smith:
I would, I would never, uh, place myself in between the government of Japan and any prefecture. Um, I would simply say that, that as a, as the Senior Marine, our obligation is to ensure that every agreement that the government of the United States has with the government of Japan is concluded and executed in accordance with its original, uh, agreement. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. And, and I'm responsible for that on the Marine Corps side and will continue to do that. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>,
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, about the, uh, Marine little regimen. Yes. Okay. And what is the significance of the ML Marine littoral regiment to be deployed in Okinawa by, uh, 2025? Yeah. How will the M L R respond in the event of a Taiwan contingency by China? Yeah.
Gen. SmithT:
he, the 12th Marine Control regiment mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, actually exists now. It's the 12th Marine Regiment, which is our artillery regiment, which is already here, uh, in Japan, it's in Okinawa. We'll transform it by giving it new technology and capability. Some of those technologies and capabilities are to, to provide advanced maritime domain awareness. Mm-hmm. <affirmative> so that our allies and partners throughout the region, as that unit deploys, uh, off of Okinawa, they could go anywhere in the, in the, uh, in the region. They can provide maritime domain awareness to our partner nations, our friends, to ensure that they understand what's happening around them. 'cause if you can understand what's happening, you can then determining, you can determine why it is happening, and that's what that Lato regiment does. The recent, uh, US Japan two plus two agreement that allowed the 12th electoral regiment to remain on Okinawa was, I think, very important to provide that, uh, aerial and maritime domain awareness. Uh, we would say sense and make sense, understand what's happening, then determine why it's happening, and then you can respond with a, with a correct plan for that, uh, event that is happening that you can now see and understand.
Kochi Toshihide :
Is it, uh, about the, uh, fourth design 20, uh, 2030 mm-hmm. <affirmative>, is it safe to assume that the Marine Corps has shifted its focus from fighting terrorism in the Middle East to operating in the, in the Pacific region to counter and deter China?
Gen. Smith:
Yes. Yes. The, the shift for us, we've been very clear that the US National Defense Strategy calls China the pacing challenge. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, Russia is an acute threat. And so as we shift from the counter-terrorism time of Iraq and Afghanistan into peer competition, uh, the force design 2030 effort was to modernize us mm-hmm. <affirmative> to be able to deter a peer competitor. And we feel very fortunate to be doing that, um, globally, with regards to Japan, our, our aim, much like, uh, that of the Japanese self-defense forces is to prevent a conflict. And we feel incredibly fortunate here to work with the J S D F. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I personally have worked with the amphibious rapid deployment brigade with the Western Army, um, uh, with the Coco <inaudible>. They are phenomenal partners. Uh, the J M S D F, they have been incredibly good partners. Um, I've, I've been aboard, uh, the Izumo. Uh, we will continue to do those kind of interactions and interoperable, um, training as we just did in Talisman Sabre. And if you do in Baan, because we all, again, share that same goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific. And that forced design to modernize is something that I believe is shared. The desire to modernize and be prepared to deter a conflict of regional scale is something shared by all freedom loving nations here in the, in the Indo-Pacific.
Kochi Toshihide :
Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, it, uh, will the tank, tank unit of the Marine Corps be completely eliminated as stated, stated in the force design 2013?
Gen. Smith:
Yes. It, it already has been. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, we, we had three tank battalions mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, we had first, second, and fourth, we had two active tank battalions and a reserve battalion. Those have been disestablished and already, yes, they have already done. Uh, because what we have found is the, the weight, uh, and the logistical challenges of maintaining those tanks. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, especially in the Pacific, was, was not as important or was, was more challenging than the benefit derived from those tanks. Instead, we're focused on long range fires, or what we would refer to as counterstrike. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, that is something that all counterstrike is something that all, uh, countries who have a, who have the desire to defend their own territory is something that all countries, uh, with that goal, I think seek. And we certainly seek it to have counterstrike, but we have, we have made that trade, if you will, from heavy tanks to counterstrike counterstrike.
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, my next question is about the, uh, self-defense force. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, I mean, the, how, what is your thought on cooperation with the Japanese self-defense force to Yeah. Counter China in the Univers Pacific?
Gen. Smith:
First, my first deployment, uh, to Japan was in 1988. So I've, I've seen this relationship grow mm-hmm. <affirmative> for almost 40 years mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Um, and it is, uh, I mean, you, you can't see this in the print media. I know, but I have a pretty big smile on my face, uh, because I've watched that relationship grow over again four decades. And it is a spectacular relationship. It is ironclad, it's a cornerstone of everything we do here in the Indo-Pacific. Um, because the professionalism of the Japanese self-defense forces is second to none. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, technologically advanced, dedicated, skilled, professional, um, committed to their homeland. I, I love working with the Japanese self-defense forces. And, um, any action that is taken by the Japanese self-defense forces is, it's clearly up to the government of Japan. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, our goal is to make sure that whatever contingency may come one day, whatever political decision may be made by the United States or the Japanese, uh, side of this alliance, we seek to be ready to be interoperable, truly interoperable with each other, so that we can deter conflict and defend each other. Mm-hmm.
Kochi Toshihide:
<affirmative>, what role would the US military expect the self-defense force to play in the event of, uh, Taiwan contingency if it occurs?
Gen Smith:
What I would say is, is that we would never expect, um, the anything mm-hmm. <affirmative> of the government of Japan. That would be, um, that would be for the government of Japan to decide. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, my job as a, as a military chief, is to ensure that our militaries are interoperable. So that if political leadership decided to do course of action one or two or three, we were able to execute that mm-hmm. <affirmative>, but, but I would never presume to expect, uh, another country to do thing one or thing two or thing three, that that would be, uh, something I just, I simply wouldn't do.
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, so how do you think that cooperation with Japanese defense self force, uh, would be like in the future with the US Ministry? I think In the Conting,I mean, in a contingency. Yeah. Well, it would depend on the contingency, um,Of Taiwan contingency.
Gen Smith:
I, I wouldn't speculate on a, on a particular contingency. Again, I would go, go back to any contingency. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, our job as military professionals is to provide our political leaders with options mm-hmm. <affirmative>, um, the options that we can provide are counterstrike maritime domain awareness. We can provide logistical support, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, um, deterrence defense. We can provide all that. And I believe that, uh, our, our Japanese Self-Defense Force partners, uh, have those same capabilities. And our goal is to, is to make sure that they fit together so that our political leaders can make those kind of determinations about what they will or will not do in the future. But I, I, I would reiterate, um, the Japanese self-defense forces, it is a, it's a privilege to get to work with them. Um, from the amphibious rapid deployment brigade, my time in three meth was a R D B, uh, 15th Brigade. Uh, I was very fortunate to work with General Yamazaki mm-hmm. <affirmative>, uh, when he was the head of the ground Defense Forces, I felt very privileged to have his, him as a mentor. Um, we have a really strong, uh, and, and continually growing relationship, um, with high technology issues mm-hmm. <affirmative>, but also just individual soldiers and Marines. Um, we just, we get along, we, we, we both seek maximum professionalism. And I, I find that very heartening. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>
Kochi Toshihide :
And Japanese governments, uh, decided to possess a counterstrike capability last year. How do you assess the, this decision, uh, to possess the counterstrike capability? And also, what do you think of the significance of the Japan creating a permanent joint headquarters?
Gen Smith:
Yeah. I'll start with the second first. Uh, my, my belief as a military professional is that the permanent joint headquarters is, is a very wise idea. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, um, and I'm looking forward later today, I'll be very fortunate to meet with the head of the Joint staff. Um, and, uh, as I speak to General Rashida, um, that topic may come up, but I, I would strongly support that. I think it's a, uh, I would respectfully offer mm-hmm. <affirmative> that it is a wise decision to have that centralized ability to understand the totality of one's forces. Um, with the, uh, and if you would repeat the, oh, the Counterstrike Counterstrike, the counterstrike, any country who seeks peace and who seeks, uh, simply to not be harassed, bullied, or, or attacked, would seek counterstrike. That is always a wise thing. We have counterstrike capabilities. I understand that Japan will possess counterstrike capabilities, and they're always a wise deterrence, a wise investment. So I always support that as well. And that is just my professional military opinion, not, uh, presuming, uh, what Japan will or will not do. But as a military professional, I would offer that same comment to, to any peace loving nation.
Kochi Toshihide:
Okay. And, uh, my question goes about the North Korea. Uh, North Korea has attempted to launch a military satellite recognizance satellite using bio thick missile technology. And it has failed twice and has announced that it will launch again in October. How do you view assess North Korea's provocation threats of nuclear and missile development?
Gen. Smith:
Yeah, they're unhelpful and they violate multiple, mm-hmm. <affirmative> international norms and sanctions. Um, North Korea continues with its bellaco rhetoric, which is unhelpful to anyone. And the, the continued and flagrant violation of those United States resolutions, um, further isolates one of the countries who needs to be, needs least to be further isolated. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, it's very unfortunate. And, um, and it should change. Mm-hmm.
Kochi Toshihide :
<affirmative>. So do you see any threat, uh, from North Korea developing the its missile and nuclear technology capability?
Gen. Smith:
Any country who threatens as North Korea has to use that technology against their neighbors or against others, that is absolutely a threat. So when you both develop a capability and you have, uh, officially threatened to use it, that's absolutely a threat, which is why the ballistic missile defense is so important. I would note that the recent camp David, uh, meeting between the Republic of Korea, the United States, and Japan, uh, is incredibly important. 'cause one of those, one of the many accomplishments of that particular agenda was missile defense. How do we defend ourselves against someone like a North Korea mm-hmm. <affirmative>, who might threaten, and I would, I would simply offer that, um, that trilateral agreement is incredibly important at keeping the peace in this area.
Kochi Toshihide :
Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, the last question about, uh, again, China and Russia mm-hmm. <affirmative>, what, what lessons do you think China has learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Gen Smith:
Well, a couple things on that. What's, what's interesting, 'cause you, you've mentioned, you know, Russia and China, um, were here in the US Embassy, and I feel fortunate here in just a few minutes, I'll get to meet with, uh, with Ambassador Emmanuel. Um, an individual who has experience through his deep understanding of the United States government and our, our challenges, all the way back to when he were served with President Clinton. So he's seen multiple versions of a Russia, and he's certainly seen multiple versions of a China. So I think, uh, today's meeting that I'll have with Ambassador Emanuel will be, will be enlightening. And, uh, I feel very fortunate that he's here as our exceptional ambassador. The, the things, it's, it's too soon to take too many lessons from Ukraine, uh, pardon me from Ukraine. But what I hope that every nation takes is if, if a peaceful nation is illegally attacked, attacked in an unprovoked fashion, the other neighbors peace-loving neighbors of that attacked country will rally together to place pressure on the attacker economically militarily. So that lesson should be learned by everyone, not any specific country, but by every country. Peaceful neighbors will rally around the person or the country who is attacked. I have certainly seen that happen in Ukraine, and I would expect to see that happen anywhere globally. I won't call out any specific country, but peaceful nations rally around each other. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>,
Kochi Toshihide :
Do you think that China has learned anything from the, uh, invasion of Ukraine?
Gen. Smith:
I, I would never presume to think what, uh, chairman Xi is, has, or has not learned, what I would hope would be learned by anyone to include China, is that any kind of forceful, uh, action, bekos action against, uh, others is going to be met by international condemnation. And it's gonna be met by, uh, again, a forceful coalition of peaceful nations who will, again, inflict economic, uh, cost on the attacker. And there'll be a military aspect of that too, which, which is always an option against the attacker, and that's it's unwise behavior for anyone. Mm-hmm.
Kochi Toshihide :Thank you very much.
If I may, um, um, some que follow up questions on the ml M l r. Yes, please. Um, so could you elaborate a bit on what is going to happen from now to 2025? What kind of preparations are going to take place, and is there urgency? Any urgency on the US side, um, to be fully prepared to make the m l r fully prepared by 2027, which is the timeline, which some US officials have elaborated as, as a potential timeline for Taiwan invasion?
Speaker 2 (27:04):
Gen Smith:
Yeah. On, on the timeline. Um, as, as a service chief, my time timeline is always tomorrow morning. Uh, I want to be ready today for tomorrow. So I, I, I don't, uh, try to set, you know, 27, 28, 29 or 30, uh, I wanna be ready faster than I am today. I always wanna be faster. With regard to the M L R, we have the third Marine Latorre regiment already established in Hawaii. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>, what will happen in the next two years is as we continue to learn and make minor adjustments to the third Laal regiment based in Hawaii, those changes will be applied to the 12th laal regiment that will be here in Japan. So 2025 is our, is our goal. If it could be faster, it would be, would be wonderful to be faster with those new technologies. And again, every new technology though that, um, that is currently not here, has to come here with the complete, uh, approval of the government of Japan. We, we offer tech as a service chief. I offer capabilities to the combatant Commander, Admiral Lao, who, who commands forces. Uh, I prepare those forces, and I offer those capabilities to Admiral Lao, who then would seek the permission of the government of Japan to introduce any new technologies, uh, for example, our T p s 80 radar, our new radar. We sought the ability to introduce that, and it's here. Now. Any other technologies and capabilities would, would come, uh, with the approval of the government in Japan. Exactly. But I do always wanna be faster.
Kochi Toshihide :
Excuse me. Does that include like long range missiles? Or,
Gen. Smith:
What I will tell you is, as a service chief, I'm obligated to prepare my units with long range fires capabilities and offer them dab morino. Whether they come here or not is a matter of between the US government and the Japanese government. Um, I don't, uh, I don't unilaterally make any kind of decision like that because that, that would not be in keeping with our very strong alliance of, of mutual respect and seeking host nation approval to introduce those systems into any country, uh, throughout the region.
Kochi Toshihide :
Uh, the C C S I S has, um, published a report in January on the war game, um, scenario on Taiwan invasion. And it pointed out that the M L R did not play a heavily in most scenarios. And, and it was very difficult to, to, um, operate inside the Chinese defense zone. Um, how, how would you, did, would you dispute that kind of, um, analysis?
Gen Smith:
Well, well, I never dispute, uh, anyone's findings. Um, I'm very familiar with that C ss i s war game. It was conducted at the unclassified level, meaning it did not take into account all of the technologies which are classified, which we would obviously share with Japan through our information sharing agreements. Um, but it didn't take into account those classified systems that make the LA regiment more effective. So, um, any study is useful to me. I absorb it, I digest it and make adjustments. But when a war game is conducted in the unclassified setting, it is not of tremendous value to me. It's of some value, but not of great value. Uh, the Marine Corps has conducted dozens of war games at the very classified level, which would offer a different perspective of the usefulness of the Littoral regimen.
Kochi Toshihide:
So far, I think, um, uh, the US government is, uh, expecting three, um, MLRs in the, the Pacific region. Um, do you, given that you feel MLRs MLRs are a significant player, um, do you expect at some point to review the number or increase toward increasing? Yeah.
Gen Smith;
Um, we review ourselves constantly. Um, so as the third LAR regimen and the 12th lare regimen are, are fully up and running. And then the next one, uh, is supposed to be the fourth Marine littoral regiment. We're making assessments every day. And what I've always said is, when, when facts and data are presented that we need, if we needed four littoral regiments, or if we only needed two, then I would make that adjustment. But it has to be based on facts. Uh, it has to be based on the needs of our combatant commanders, our allies and partners, and the findings of our continued experimentation. We call it the campaign of learning. Every day we get up and we go to school. We learn trying to be better every day. So I'll make the modifications, um, that are required after the data comes to me and I'm, and I'm actively seeking those facts and pieces of data so I can continue to make those determinations and decisions going forward.
Miya Tanaka:
Do do you feel the numbers should increase eventually?
Gen. Smith:
Um, I don't know. Uh, I'll have to wait for the facts to, to present themselves. I'm not opposed to increasing, and I'm not opposed to stopping it too of the, to regiments if that's what the data shows me. So I keep an open mind every day. I have a Marine Corps war fighting lab who does this every day constantly. And I depend on them and our fleet marine forces to include those here, uh, in Japan to tell me the, the, the changes that need to be made to our forced design plan. We've already made multiple changes, and I'm sure we'll make multiple changes again, because our pacing challenge of China and the acute threat of Russia move every day. So you, you have to move with those challenges and threats to stay ahead of them.
Miya Tanaka
Have, have you, have you decided where to deploy the, uh, First Marine Regiment?
Gen. Smith:
We, we have not, uh, formally called for, for where it will be, um, because that's, its formation would not be previewed until 2030. So we have quite a bit of time to determine that. So we're, we're continuing to look at our options, but we have not yet formally decided it will go here or here, because that is, uh, that's quite a few years away, and much can happen between now and then.
Miya Tanaka ;
Um, so despite all this, um, marine configuration and realignment, um, is the Marine committed to, um, keep the, uh, burden on Okinawa, um, people remain the same or continue to reduce it? Or would you, would you commit to that Okinawa's burden? Um, regardless of these, um, stepping of this military buildup will remain, um, the same or the troop, I think the Marines have already been committed to the same troop level, but in terms of like the basis mm-hmm. <affirmative>, would, would you say that, would you say that it will change?
Gen. Smith:
Well, our, our commitment to the government of Japan is that by the first half of the 2020s, we will begin the move, uh, off of Okinawa to bring the force level on Okinawa to about 10,000. That will not change. Um, we have not changed that, and that would not change unless, uh, you know, there was the governor of Japan changed it, uh, in consultation with us. But we're fully committed to what we have agreed to in the two plus two, which is about 10,000. And that those initial moves will happen in the first half of the 2020. So when we make a commitment, we keep our word and we are fully committed to, to doing so, and are making the preparations to make that a reality.